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| | Positive Signs Recession May Be Over By Summer's End By Lonce LaMon - May 10, 2009There are positive signs that the U.S. economy may not be getting worse. Job losses in the month of April 2009 were the smallest since last October of 2008. According to the Labor Department non-farm payrolls were down a smaller than expected 539,000 last month. That's a big drop from the upwardly revised loss of almost 700,000 jobs in March of 2009.
That brings the total number of jobs lost in this recession to 5.7 million. But although the disappearance of more than 500,000 jobs last month is nothing to smile about, there are positive signs from this report, according to economist Annetta Marcosca, of Societe General, "We're seeing a bit of a turn in terms of the severity of the job losses. Those losses will continue for some time, but we're seeing a light at the end of the tunnel now. It was really hard to see that light at the beginning of this year."
Unemployment rose to its highest in 25 years in April to 8.9 percent, and to 8.5 percent in March. But, continued Annetta Marcosca, "We basically are looking now for a growth to turn positive in the 3rd Quarter. So, there's some chance that the recession could actually end technically by the end of this Summer."
If the economy does turn positive by Summer's end the way Marcosca predicts, it doesn't necessarily mean employers will rush to create new jobs. Most will still feel wary and will move forward cautiously. Economists still expect unemployment to hit 10 percent even if the recession may be near an end. |